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In the early 90s, the US economy lost over 1.5 million jobs during a short 8-month recession. Job losses were accompanied by depressed real estate values, an oil price shock and waning consumer confidence.
Asked for his thoughts on the recession, Sam Walton, the founder of WalMart, replied: “I've thought about it, but I've chosen not to participate.”
This “choice” wasn’t just bravado - WalMart’s revenues grew through the recession. Already a powerhouse in 1991 with over $40bn in revenue, today WalMart generates $650bn in revenue.
I thought of Sam Walton’s quip while at the P3•EDU Conference in Denver last week. P3 is an annual conference that brings together universities, government, foundations and corporations that are leveraging public-private partnerships to grow enrollment and improve student outcomes. The conference has a reputation for attracting innovative organizations and ideas.
During one session, panelists were asked about the problems facing higher education. Were they worried about the demographic cliff as fewer students graduate high school? The consumption cliff as fewer students choose to go to college? Cost pressures as inflation squeezes operating margins?
One panelist gave a Walton-esque reply and ignored the list of potential concerns: Higher Ed doesn’t have too little demand, we have too little supply.
Wait a second. In this economy? Doesn’t this guy know there’s an enrollment recession going on?
Maybe, but he’s not interested in participating. In the eyes of this panelist, there is plentiful demand for education that delivers a return-on-investment. There actually isn’t enough supply of the right programs at the right price point to meet that demand.
Throughout my two days at the conference, I was repeatedly inspired by stories of growth and improvement. One panelist shared stories of peer-to-peer tutoring improving failure rates and retention. Another shared how career guidance efforts have lifted first-destination salaries of their graduates 25% above a national benchmark.
More generally, one panelist reminded the audience that despite the preference for doom and gloom in industry publications, most institutions that have adjusted their product offerings and price to meet student demand are growing. Just scan LinkedIn if you don’t believe it. Over the last month, I saw dozens of announcements of small private colleges that welcomed record numbers of students to campus.
As I got on the plane home, I was still struggling to find the “so what” of my message. Am I really just saying “be positive” and “mind over matter”?
Partially, yes. I truly believe that the water you swim in is really important and that more optimism is needed. It’s fun to go to conferences where you leave with a greater belief in the future. It’s inspiring to hear people talk about partnerships that are improving and delivering ROI for students. And to learn that those institutions are growing. Being around Sam Walton types gives me greater confidence in our ability to effect change. In the words of Dr. Tyler Cowen, one of the lowest-effort, highest-return actions available to all of us is raising others’ aspirations.
But it is more than just mindset. It’s that this mindset creates a bias toward action. When it isn’t the recession that predetermines the outcome, you’re much more likely to try something new and start attacking the challenge.
During one of the last sessions, a panelist from McKinsey reminded everyone that most of the headwinds we talk about today have been consistently written about for over 10 years. So while it sounds obvious, simply getting started and having the institutional capacity for change management has been a key predictor of successful institutions.
In the eyes of these panelists, is it too late to replicate the actions that have helped other institutions succeed? The actions that have better aligned institutional offerings with the changing needs of students? No, but you do have to get started.
Maybe Sam Walton has something to say about that too…
“When folks have asked me, how did Walmart do it? I’ve usually been flip about answering them. ‘Friend, we just got after it and stayed after it.’”
