Table of Contents:
The landscape of higher education enrollment in 2024-2025 reveals a complex array of challenges and opportunities, shaped by demographic shifts, economic pressures, and evolving student expectations. Institutions are adapting to declines in traditional undergraduate enrollment while exploring growth areas among diverse student populations and flexible learning formats.
Declining Traditional Undergraduate Enrollments
Traditional undergraduate enrollment has seen a consistent downward trend, with first-time freshman enrollment declining by approximately 5% in 2023-2024. The National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) reports that public and private nonprofit four-year institutions have experienced the largest decreases, with 8.5% and 6.5% declines, respectively. These declines are especially pronounced in the Midwest, where demographic changes and economic pressures are reshaping post-secondary education paths. As alternative career routes like apprenticeships and specialized training programs attract more high school graduates, institutions that rely on a steady stream of traditional freshmen face increasing challenges in maintaining enrollment levels. This reality has led many colleges to explore diversified recruitment strategies and reevaluate their dependency on traditional undergraduate students.
Challenges in Adult and Graduate Enrollment
Although adult and graduate markets have been viewed as potential areas for growth, recent data indicates obstacles to capturing these segments. Rising tuition costs and a competitive job market make adult learners more cautious about returning to school, especially for programs without clear return on investment (ROI). RNL’s 2023 Higher Education Benchmarking Report shows that adult enrollment has decreased by approximately 1.4%, with humanities and social sciences seeing the steepest declines. In contrast, demand for health sciences and business programs remains stable, as these fields provide clearer career pathways. This trend highlights the importance of institutions aligning their offerings with market demand, particularly by focusing on flexible learning formats and career-focused programs to attract adult learners.
Growth Among New Demographics
Despite declines in some areas, enrollment of students from underrepresented backgrounds as well as international enrollments are on the rise. The Institute of International Education (IIE) reports that international enrollment increased by about 4%, especially in fields like STEM and business. Domestically, Hispanic and Asian American enrollment is also rising. Data from EAB and NSC emphasize the importance of culturally responsive support systems in retaining these diverse populations. For institutions willing to invest in advising, mentorship, and academic support services, diversity not only enriches campus culture but also provides an enrollment pathway that can offset declines in other segments.
Emerging Opportunities in Online and Flexible Learning Models
A significant shift in student preferences toward online and hybrid learning is reshaping program delivery models. This demand is no longer exclusive to non-traditional students; recent research from Rize Education reveals that 95% of traditional undergraduates express interest in taking 1-2 online courses each semester. This shift reflects broader changes in how students approach education, with many now seeking adaptable learning formats that allow them to balance personal and academic commitments. Institutions that expand hybrid and online offerings are likely to attract both traditional undergraduates and working professionals, reinforcing the importance of flexibility in today’s higher education landscape.
Given the current trends, enrollment projections for 2024-2025 suggest continued challenges for traditional undergraduate enrollments, yet targeted growth potential exists in specific areas.
Flexible Learning Formats Will Drive Growth Across Student Types
The demand for flexible learning options is projected to drive growth across all student demographics. According to the NSC, both traditional and adult students show increasing interest in hybrid and skills-based courses, reflecting a preference for educational models that can adapt to their schedules and personal commitments. Rize Education’s study corroborates this trend, finding that a significant proportion of traditional undergraduates now expect hybrid and online options as part of their academic experience.
Opportunities in Transfer Student Markets
Transfer enrollment has seen an overall decline of about 4%, yet opportunities remain for institutions that simplify the transfer process and build strong community college partnerships. Carnegie Higher Ed’s research highlights that colleges with clear transfer pathways and articulation agreements are better positioned to attract transfer students, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest where such partnerships are well-established. Institutions that create tailored support systems for transfer students, including dedicated advising and orientation programs, are more successful in retaining these students and maximizing transfer market potential.
Strong Demand for Credentials in High-Growth Fields
Enrollment in fields like computer science, engineering, and health sciences continues to grow, with recent data showing a 6% increase in these programs according to NSC. These areas attract students seeking direct career outcomes, aligning well with the job market demand for technical and healthcare professionals. By expanding their offerings in these high-growth areas and providing targeted financial incentives, institutions can appeal to students motivated by career goals and job security.
Institutions can respond to these enrollment trends by implementing strategies focused on streamlined processes, diversified recruitment, and programmatic alignment with career outcomes.
Optimize the Enrollment Funnel for a Seamless Experience
An efficient enrollment process has a measurable impact on conversion rates, particularly for non-traditional and transfer students who prioritize ease and responsiveness. Carnegie Higher Ed emphasizes that simplifying application procedures and improving communication flow can significantly reduce friction points in the enrollment funnel (Carnegie Higher Ed). Colleges should consider streamlining inquiry responses, incorporating self-service options, and using real-time support to improve the prospective student experience.
We recently wrote about how the hidden friction in funnels is costing institutions significantly in enrollment. Read more about commonly hidden friction points and how to solve them.
Diversify Beyond Athletic Recruitment
For colleges that rely heavily on athletic recruitment, expanding outreach to non-athletes presents a growth opportunity. EAB research indicates that institutions with diverse student engagement options—such as clubs, community-building programs, and faculty-driven initiatives—attract students interested in a broader college experience (EAB). Building non-athlete personas, alongside inclusive recruitment efforts, helps institutions draw a more varied applicant pool that supports long-term enrollment goals (EAB).
Download our free enrollment playbook for recruiting non-athlete students.
Implement Data-Driven and Personalized Marketing
Personalized marketing campaigns backed by CRM data allow institutions to connect with students based on specific interests and needs. According to RNL, data-informed marketing strategies lead to higher yield rates and better recruitment ROI by aligning outreach with the unique preferences of each segment. Campus-wide engagement in personalized marketing enhances recruitment efforts, creating a cohesive approach that improves student engagement and conversion.
For more ways to think about personalizing your outreach efforts and rallying your campus stakeholders to support this effort, read 6 Enrollment Marketing Yield Strategies for Small Colleges from our Head of Enrollment Marketing, Scott Smith.
Offer Targeted Financial Incentives Aligned with High-Demand Fields
To counter rising tuition costs, institutions are increasingly using targeted scholarships and grants for students in high-demand fields like engineering, computer science, and health sciences. The NSC has documented growth in these areas, suggesting that career-focused financial aid can be an effective tool for attracting students seeking ROI in their education. By aligning financial aid with high-growth fields, colleges can enhance accessibility and attract students focused on career outcomes.
Highlight Program Outcomes and ROI to Boost Appeal
Program outcomes have become essential for prospective students and families evaluating colleges. EAB’s research demonstrates that institutions with transparent ROI metrics—such as job placement rates, average starting salaries, and industry partnerships—build trust with prospective students and their families, often leading to higher enrollment in career-aligned programs. Creating accessible reports or dashboards that communicate these outcomes helps colleges demonstrate their value proposition to prospective students.
The current state of higher education enrollment requires institutions to adapt to ongoing shifts in student demographics, program demand, and learning preferences. By recognizing these trends and implementing strategies that align with student needs, colleges and universities can position themselves for growth in an increasingly competitive landscape.
